Most folks get caught up in whether or not the can predict the future.  Perception is reality and bias has no place in markets.  (K.I.S.S.) is the absolute truth in just about everything in life and in markets.  At any moment markets will only do one of 2 things and thats it.  It doesn’t matter what one’s beliefs are or what should happen what we know is 1 of 2 things will happen and that is all we do know.   Once you have rational expectation of what the possibilities are its really not that complicated.